[SMM Analysis] Manganese Market Remained Stable During National Day Holiday, Expected to Show Volatile Pattern Post-Holiday

During the National Day holiday, the domestic manganese market maintained a steady operating rhythm without significant fluctuations. After the holiday (in October), the manganese market is expected to experience a volatile adjustment pattern due to the interplay of multiple factors.

Manganese ore market:

Supply side, during the National Day holiday, overseas manganese mines continued their shipping operations smoothly, with no interruptions caused by the holiday or force majeure. However, according to feedback from long-term contract miners, the overall port arrivals of manganese ore in China will decrease in October. Against the backdrop of tight future supply, domestic miners generally have a positive outlook on the subsequent market, and their willingness to sell at a discount has significantly decreased. Current spot prices for manganese ore remain firm, with no price promotions due to sluggish holiday demand.

Demand side, most SiMn alloy plants had completed their stockpiling before the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the procurement demand for manganese ore from SiMn alloy plants declined, leading to a generally cold trading atmosphere. Only a few alloy plants made just-in-time procurements due to inventory levels below safety lines, which had limited impact on overall market transactions.

Overall, the manganese ore market in October will maintain a temporarily stable trend but will exhibit a volatile operating pattern influenced by minor fluctuations in supply and demand expectations.

SiMn market:

Cost side, coke prices increased and then stabilized during the National Day holiday, and spot prices for manganese ore also remained stable. However, South32, CML, and Comilog's November quotations to China all showed increases, indicating strong cost support in the long term. Miners are optimistic and reluctant to budge on prices, expecting the total production cost of SiMn alloys in October to rise compared to September.

Supply side, alloy plants operated stably during the National Day holiday, and new capacity is expected to come online in October, potentially expanding the actual supply scale further.

Demand side, steel mills' production plans for October are generally stable, with few additional blast furnace maintenance and resumptions. The rigid demand for SiMn alloys remains steady, and short-term demand is temporarily stable.

Macro front, the economic conference in October may reiterate the "anti-involution" policy in the 14th Five-Year Plan. If implemented, this policy will help regulate the competitive order of the SiMn market, reduce disorderly low-price competition, and under the support of the policy, there is an expectation of price increases.

Overall, the current SiMn market is running steadily, but the price uncertainty is increasing under policy expectations, and it is anticipated that the market will show a rising trend with volatility in October.